UK House prices in October rose by 0.7%

House prices in October rose by 0.7%

The average price of all residential property transactions completed in England & Wales in October 2009 was 0.7% higher than in September. This is the sixth month in succession in which FTHPI has recorded positive, though modest, growth in the prices at which homes were sold.

 Prices are now just 2.4% lower than a year ago

On an annual basis, the average price of all residential property transactions in England & Wales in October is 2.4% lower than a year ago. The trough in the house price decline, on an annual basis, was reached in April 2009 at minus 13.3%.

 Q3 Housing transactions are higher than the same quarter in 2008

To date there were 166,319 housing transactions recorded by the Land Registry for third quarter (Q3) 2009, a 12.9% increase over Q3 2008. The Q3 2009 total is however 46% lower than the 10 year average for the period 2000–2009.

Dr Peter Williams, Chairman of Acadametrics said “The average price of a home has continued to rise modestly and, at £208,401, is back to where it was in September 2006. “The monthly price rise of 0.7% contrasts markedly with the 1.8% price drop recorded for October 2008. The data clearly support the view that the sharpest falls are now behind us and that the market has made a modest recovery, even if it is too early to talk of a sustained upturn.”

Dr Peter Williams, Chairman of Acadametrics, comments, “The average price of a home in England & Wales is now £208,401. At this level, it is still down £23,401 from its peak in February 2008 of £231,802 but clearly prices have stabilised and some of the more damaging outcomes of house price falls - losses on sales, negative equity and reduced mobility - are beginning to diminish. This is encouraging given the scale of the downturn over the last 18 months. Clearly affordability has improved marginally as has mortgage supply, but the market remains weak.

“The other main feature of the current slow recovery in sales transactions is that there is a clear split in the rate of recovery between property types. In Q3 2009 the sale of detached and semi-detached houses has increased by 33.2% and 21.0% respectively over Q3 2008 levels. This contrasts markedly with the Q3 2009 sale of flats which are 11.4% down on the same quarter in 2008.

“This divergence in recovery rates between the sale of detached properties and flats and terraces applies to the whole of England and Wales, irrespective of region. The current “weak” sector in the market would thus appear to be the sale of flats. These are traditionally associated with „First Time Buyers‟ and the „Buy to Let‟ market, with both having been impacted by the limited supply of mortgages and tighter loan terms.”

“As we move into the last months of the year, we must now consider what might happen in 2010. Current prices are being reported on the basis of limited transaction numbers which are substantially down from long term averages. The lack of homes on the market is creating competition amongst buyers (with the added stimulus of the stamp duty holiday). As listings increase and more supply comes to market we might expect this to affect the prices being achieved. Taken together with continuing unemployment/underemployment, a still partly faltering economy and possible interest rate rises later in 2010, we might well see prices stabilise or even fall during the coming year. This may further discourage some owners from putting their homes on the market, thus contributing to a continuing „thin‟ market. Indeed with a General Election in the next few months leading to uncertainty around HIPS and taxation, a probable peak in arrears and possessions, albeit at a relatively low base, and mortgage supply remaining constrained there are many reasons to expect a muted market in 2010.”

HOUSING TRANSACTIONS

“In terms of transactions the table below shows that the recovery in sales transactions is not uniform across England & Wales. The three northernmost regions in England are showing negative growth in terms of Q3 2009 sales compared to Q3 2008, with the volume of transactions being less than half of the 10 year average for Q3 2000–2009. The region with the highest recovery in sales is the South West, where transactions in Q3 have increased by 31.0% over Q3 2008, although even here the level of sales in Q3 2009 is only 63% of the 10 year average.